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Five-Year Risk of Stroke after TIA or Minor Ischemic Stroke

A total of 3847 patients were included in the 5-year follow-up study; the median percentage of patients with 5-year follow-up data per center was 92.3% (interquartile range, 83.4 to 97.8). The composite primary outcome occurred in 469 patients (estimated cumulative rate, 12.9%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 11.8 to 14.1), with 235 events (50.1%) occurring in the second through fifth years. At 5 years, strokes had occurred in 345 patients (estimated cumulative rate, 9.5%; 95% CI, 8.5 to 10.5), with 149 of these patients (43.2%) having had a stroke during the second through fifth years. Rates of death from any cause, death from cardiovascular causes, intracranial hemorrhage, and major bleeding were 10.6%, 2.7%, 1.1%, and 1.5%, respectively, at 5 years. In multivariable analyses, ipsilateral large-artery atherosclerosis, cardioembolism, and a baseline ABCD2 score for the risk of stroke (range, 0 to 7, with higher scores indicating greater risk) of 4 or more were each associated with an increased risk of subsequent stroke.


In a follow-up to a 1-year study involving patients who had a TIA or minor stroke, the rate of cardiovascular events including stroke in a selected cohort was 6.4% in the first year and 6.4% in the second through fifth years.


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